The use of analytics across the NFL has steadily increased. Just a few years ago special team coaches were using simple decision tables to look at scoreboards and determine when to kick an extra point or go for a two-point conversion. The 2022 season has shown fans a dramatic increase in the visible use of analytics and “game bots” to inform live game decisions.
Use of Analytics to Inform Decision Making Grows
The two-point conversion was the first visible application of NFL analytics. Now it’s become normal for teams to use football analytics to determine whether to “go for it” on fourth down with any number of yards to gain. However, in this year’s final week of the regular season we saw what some viewed as a questionable use of analytics over conventional football wisdom and rational risk aversion.
Growth of Analytics Will be Shaped by Stories
Like any change there will be plenty of drama as the use of analytics advances. There will be advocates and opposers, purists and innovators, all advocating for things to stay the same, change or meet somewhere in the middle. Take for example this year’s final week of the NFL regular season in which many felt Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley made a head-scratching fourth-down decision. Viewers who thought the decision was based on analytics alone saw it as a misguided application of analytics.
Staley, who is known as an aggressive decision-maker, opted to go for it on 4th-and-1 from the Chargers’ 18. His team was trailing by three points with 9:41 remaining in the third quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders. Rather than punting the ball away, the Chargers failed to execute a run play as designed, resulting in a two-yard loss to force a turnover on downs. Staley knew the analytic probability but also used his gut in believing his team could run for the yards given the defensive matchups and that achieving the first down would help generate some needed confidence for his offense.
With seemingly controversial decisions like Staley’s, how analytics may change game management is now getting greater attention. As advocates and critics weigh in, the debates are resulting in both education about the increasing power of analytics and deeper discussions on potential impacts. Taking a deeper look into NFL analytics and how advanced algorithms have evolved in factoring intangibles such as momentum may convert some old school critics. For others, talk is turning to how to effectively marry analytics with human intellect and experience while optimizing how the game evolves. The Staley example shows advancing the application of analytics will be a journey, and who knows if he would make the same decision next time given a similar set of data and conditions given his evolving experience.
Business Decision Power Vs Execution Ability
The takeaway for business is that analytics will aid decision making by producing more informed decisions, but people still need to execute. In the Staley example, whether a team decides to punt or “go for it” on fourth down is a decision. The actual execution of the action whether a kick or a run play requires the application of skills. The analytic will provide meaningful information which may otherwise be hidden from us within large quantities of data, but it won’t run for a two-yard gain or catch a 30-yard post route. Business should embrace analytics to help answer the big business questions, uncover new knowledge and relationships, predict unknown outcomes and automate some decision making. Analytics is a very strong and growing compliment to the human intellect and experience. However, when it comes to most decisions, organizations only thrive when their people effectively execute their skills.
Brent A. Kedzierski is Chief Learning Officer at HumanWRKS where he focuses on helping industry improve the human condition at work.
Good read I don't know about other people, but when I am making a decision for anything I have always applied "past actions predict future actions! "